National DMO U S Travel Association's new biennial travel forecast to 2026 projects that despite rising inflation, there will be a short-term surge in US inbound traveler numbers and spend in 2022-2023, followed by slower growth in 2024-2026.
USTA projects a 2022 spend on travel to the US of $1.05 trillion (2019 dollars, adjusted for inflation), which is 10% below 2019 level and 16% below estimate of what 2022 spend would have been absent the COVID-19 pandemic.
The new forecast projects that leisure travel will continue to drive recovery of the US travel industry in the near term, with business travel lagging at 81% of pre-pandemic level in 2022 and 96% in 2023.
USTA has proposed several policy changes aimed at speeding up recovery of inbound travel, including:
- Speeding up the processing of visa applications
- Extending visitor visas for a year
- Delaying and reconsidering a proposed visa fee increase
USTA plans to update the current forecast in the fall of 2022.
