On 2 March 2020, with 4 confirmed COVID-19 cases in NYC, Phocuswright's forecasting model predicted March 2020 RevPAR to decline by 12.9% vs. March 2019.
On 29 March 2020, with more than 33,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city, that same model predicted:
- March 2020 occupancy down 62% from March 2019
- ADR down 20%
- RevPAR down 70%
Phocuswright expects there to be a 2-month NYC hotel market bottom in April-May 2020 before seeing signs of improvement in June.
"Logically, during significant periods of disruption, travelers may become more price-sensitive, but anxious hoteliers engaging in rate wars may suppress pricing not only for their competitive set, but for the destination overall."
Hospitality and tourism situation in NYC is clearly dire right now, but it's encouraging that Phocuswright anticipates some relief as early as June.