China 1Q2024 outbound travel still down 31% from 2019
Edinburgh-based search aggregator Skyscanner - part of China's Trip.com Group - predicts that total international China from China in 1Q2024 will be down 31% from 1Q2019, although up 7% from 1Q2023.
Prediction is based on air ticket sales through 13 February 2024.
But trends differ by region:
- Africa and Middle East: -5%
- Europe: -26%
- APAC: -31%
- Americas: -50%
But Skyscanner is optimistic about recovery because:
- Outbound air seat capacity has reached 71% of 1Q2019.
- Visa policies are now more favorable.
- Chinese consumers are increasing spend on culture and leisure, including travel.
- The Chinese tourism industry has taken on a more critical role in the national economy since COVID.
Several destinations showed growth in visitation from China during the 2024 Lunar New Year period, vs. 2019:
- Kuala Lumpur +24%
- Macau +10%
- Singapore +4%
- Ho Chi Minh City +3%
Top drivers of outbound destination choice from China so far in 2024 have been:
- Safety concerns
- Convenience of visa procedures
Comment: Still looks grim for North America. Stay tuned for updates.
